原油价格波动对我国经济影响英文翻译（油价上涨英文翻译）

宏观经济学中oil price shock什么意思啊？

oil price shock 翻译过来就是 “石油价格冲击”，宏观经济学上在20世纪70年代石油危机之后，人们开始关注石油价格变动与世界经济兴衰起伏之间的关系，早期观点主要集中于成本效应和财富效应。

成本效应观点认为，石油是基础生产要素，其价格上涨导致生产成本上升，总产出、劳动生产率和实际工资下降，在存在工资黏性的情况下，厂商劳动需求减少，失业率上升。

财富效应观点认为，石油价格上涨会造成石油进口国向石油输出国的财富转移，石油进口国消费下降幅度大于石油出口国消费上升幅度，从而导致世界总消费需求下降。然而，20世纪80年代的石油价格下跌并没有带来经济学家预期的经济繁荣，引发了对传统解释的怀疑。

如何缓解和消除石油价格冲击的负面效应是一个关系国计民生的重要课题。从短期来看，货币政策是缓解石油价格冲击的有效手段，它可以降低投融资成本和缓解通货膨胀预期；而从长期来看，重点在于调整国民经济增长的能源消费结构，降低能源依赖程度。

第二次世界大战以后，美国历次经济衰退之前几乎都伴随着石油价格上涨和紧缩性货币政策。石油价格大幅上涨，货币当局有可能为了控制通货膨胀水平利用利率、货币供应量等政策工具进行诟节。石油价格上涨导致货币需求上升，在货币供应量保持不变的情况下名义利率上升，投资受到抑制。另外，石油价格上涨导致物价水平上涨，在货币供应量保持不变的情况下实际购买力下降，消费受到抑制。或许石油价格冲击引起的经济衰退并不是因为石油价格本身，而是货币当局采取的紧缩性货币政策所导致的。

降低石油价格冲击的危害性，能源政策调整起着关键作用。

第一，发展低碳经济，提高能源利用效率，降低经济增长对石油的依赖。第一次石油危机之后，西方发达国家提高了能源利用效率，经济发展对石油的依赖程度降低了，在20世纪八九十年代的石油价格波动期间避免了严重的经济衰退。

第二，建立战略石油储备，依靠政府或市场手段调整市场供求，平滑石油价格波动。伊尔和苏尔（YeandSnore）发现石油库存信息能够迅速准确地反映石油市场供求状况，有利于更准确地判断未来石油价格走势。

第三，鼓励替代能源发展，优化能源结构。有研究预计，2015年中国石油进口依存度将达65%，因此中国必须发展替代能源。

第四，理顺能源市场体系，征收能源消费税。征收能源税一定程度上能引导居民消费偏好，从长期来看，有利于降低能源消耗和经济增长成本。杨继生认为，我国通过行政补贴稳定能源价格的方式不利于提高能源利用效率，并且会进一步加剧能源短缺局面。

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By calculating the above model,

通过计算上述模型，

oil price can be decomposed into three kinds of shocks

可以将原油价格分解为三类冲击

(because the lag period of the SVAR model is two year, therefore the shocks value time series is from Feb. 1982 to Dec. 2008.).

（因为该SVAR模型的滞后期为两年, 因此冲击值的时间序列起始于1982年2月并截止于2008年12月）。

For presentation convenience considerations,

为了便于描述，

all the shocks are stated to be able to bring about oil price rise.

所有冲击均指定为能够引起原油价格上涨。

The historical decomposition results tell us that from year 1993 to 2008 oil price fluctuation was influenced by the three structural shocks at the same time, but the importance is quite different.

历史分解结果告诉我们，从1993年到2008年，原油价格波动同时被这三种结构性冲击影响，然而它们的重要性却明显不同。

Specifically, in the mid-1990s, the impact of supply shocks and precautionary demand shocks on oil price fluctuation was larger than economic demand shocks.

具体而言，在1990年代中期，供给面冲击和预防性需求冲击对原油价格造成的影响要大于经济需求冲击。

But in the late 1990s, economic demand shocks gradually took effect,

但是在1990年代晚期，经济需求冲击逐渐起到更重要的作用，

in this time oil price fluctuation was impacted by all these three kinds of shocks.

在这期间，原油价格波动受所有这三种冲击的影响。

After 1999, the impact of supply shocks gradually diminished, economic and precautionary demand shocks gradually played a leading role.

1999年以后，供给面冲击的影响逐渐减弱，经济性和预防性需求冲击逐渐起到主导作用。

That’s to say that after 1999 oil price rise and the decline was mainly decided by these two shocks.

这就是说，1999年以后，原油价格的上涨和下跌主要由这两种冲击决定。

From 1999 to 2007, the global economy boomed and oil demand increased quickly pushing oil price rise rapidly.

从1999年到2007年，全球经济的繁荣与原油需求的快速增长推动了原油价格的飞速上涨。

III. TESTS OF THE IMPULSE RESPONSE OF ECONOMIC

三、经济学脉冲反应的检验

DEVELOPMENT TO OIL PRICE SHOCKS

发展相对于原油价格冲击

The simple VAR and impulse response methods are used to study the impact of oil price shocks on economic fluctuation.

简单VAR模型和脉冲反应方法是用来研究原油价格冲击对经济波动影响的。

The three oil price shocks are standardized so that a unit shocks can increase 10% of oil price rise.

三种原油价格冲击都已标准化，所以一单位的冲击可以令原油价格上涨10%。

Also the quarterly value was averaged by using monthly SVAR decomposed value.

同样，季度值通过月度SVAR分解值平均化了。

For our purpose, the averaged quarterly value time series we need here is from 1993 Q1 to 2008 Q2.

为了我们的目的，我们此处所需的平均季度值时间序列自1993年第一季度开始至2008年第二季度结束。

It shows that the impulse response of economic growth to precautionary demand shocks is always negative;

结果表明，经济增长的脉冲反应相对于预防性需求冲击永远是负相关的；

it’s also caused by the reasons of production costs increase, precautionary savings increase and consumption reduction and so on.

这也缘于生产成本的增加、预防性储蓄的增加以及消费的下降等等原因。

Consequently, when oil price rise is driven by precautionary demand shocks, oil price fluctuation will show a negative relationship with economic growth and a positive relationship will inflation.

因此，当原油价格上升是由预防性需求冲击驱使时，原油价格波动会呈现出与经济增长负相关并与通货膨胀正相关。

We also can see that the effects of precautionary demand shocks on China’s economic development are weaker in period 2 than period 1;

我们还可以看到，预防性需求冲击对中国经济发展的影响在时期2要弱于时期1；

the causes is in line with oil supply shocks. The Explanation is omitted here.

此原因与供给面冲击一致。此处略去其解释。

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Rising Oil Prices Effect on China's Economy

In the past month, the price of oil has continued to rise, breaking the US$35 per barrel mark and setting a 10-year high. Oil prices in China have also gone up, reaching US$32 per barrel. But just how big is the effect of the rise in oil prices on China's economy?

Experts in the industry feel that international oil prices are already starting to threaten the stability of China's national economy. But because China's level of dependence on international oil is still within the 20% warning mark, currently, the national economy will not feel much of an effect.

The Chinese petroleum industry has been the primary beneficiary of the large fluctuation in oil prices. In the first seven months of this year, China Petroleum and Natural Gas Group has already earned a profit of 29.1 billion yuan, a 4.4-fold increase compared to the same period last year.

Official statistics show that in 1999, China output of crude oil reached 160 billion tons and it imported 40 million tons of petroleum. This year's net import is expected to exceed this figure.

China Petroleum Group Economic and Technical Institute Assistant Head Engineer Zhou Ruohong said, the rise in oil prices has put a lot of pressure on the petrochemical industry. "We hope that the price of oil can keep at a suitable level," he said.

Zhou also said, the petrochemical industry is working very hard to decrease consumption of materials and management fees to cuts costs. At the same time, because China's crude oil prices and refined oil prices became linked with international prices in 1998 and May of this year respectively, the current domestic crude oil prices and refined oil prices have gone up with international prices. Thus, the pressure on the petrochemical industry has been alleviated to a certain extent.

China's aviation industry, one of the largest customers of oil, is also facing challenges. In the first half of this year, the entire aviation industry's cost expenditures increased by 1.27 billion yuan due to soaring oil prices. Oil costs took up a greater share of the airline companies' business costs, increasing from 22% to 31%.

"But the airlines do not plan to raise the prices of all air fare, we will strengthen management, eliminate new costs and raise efficiency," said Civil Air Administration of China finance department head Hai Liancheng.

The effect of the oil price increase on the agricultural, timber and fishing industry isn't very visible mainly because these industries labor costs are higher and machinery costs are lower. Moreover, China's peasant farmers' concept of costs isn't very strong.

China Petroleum and Natural Gas Group Economic and Information Research Center engineer Gong Jinshuang felt that the rise in oil prices does not help the overall development of the national economy. On one hand, it causes many industries' costs to go up and cuts into profits, driving away investments. On the other hand, it causes prices to rise, which restricts consumer demand, causing a recession.

"But these kinds of negatives effects aren't as serious as those in developed countries," Gong said. Petroleum only accounts for around 20% of China's energy consumption structure. Petroleum and other primary goods play a greater role in the national economy compared with developed countries.

China Energy Conference Secretary General Bao Yunqiao pointed out that it is normal to have "some companies rejoicing, some companies frowning" due to the soaring oil prices. But because the Chinese government has the ability to make adjustments in the national economy on a macroeconomic level, it can adapt to the fluctuations on the international markets to a certain extent.

From a long-term perspective, as the volume of China's net petroleum imports increases every year, some experts estimate that by 2010, China's net petroleum imports will reach 100 million tons, making China the country with the fastest growing demand for oil in the world. On the international market, petroleum is a highly speculative and monopolistic commodity, whose prices fluctuate wildly. Thus, China needs to research ways to deal with this problem.

不好意思哦.自己要复习考试时间太紧,没办法提供翻译给你了.

如果你还需要其他资料什么的,可以买CHINA DAILY来看.

请帮我把下面的文字译成英文，谢谢

Since last year, the international oil prices continue to rise. On February 26, the national development and reform commission, according to a report released on February 22, New York mercantile exchange (NYMEX) futures crude oil futures contract price in recent months to $101.32 a barrel, [1] and last January 18 compared to $49.9 a barrel doubled. International oil prices continue to run high, the global economy is day by day prominent negative impact. Our country is oil import country, no doubt, to our country economic impact will be bigger, therefore, how to deal with the international oil prices, is our country at present, we need to pay special attention to and solve the problem.

A, international oil prices cause analysis

(1) the international oil market demand stability. Mainly displays in the oil price rising, and oil demand not drop.

(2) the geopolitical influence on oil supply.

(3) the international petroleum market uncertainty factors affect the oil market price.

International oil prices continue to rise this year the main reason, is the international petroleum futures market or financial market arbitrage behavior. The current international oil price is not the oil supply and demand relations the equilibrium price, but by oil supply and demand relation restrict economic relationship "equilibrium price".

Second, the international oil prices to our country the influence of economy

In 1993, China has become a net importer of oil, 2003 for the first time in more than Japan to become the world's second largest oil consumer.

(1) cause price index rising.

2) causing production enterprise cost increase

(3) effect on our country's automobile

4) increase farmers and individual worker production cost. The development of the manufacturing industry

Third, to deal with the international oil prices in strategic thinking

Oil is the national economy's blood, it is a kind of strategic resources. China's economic sustainable development, to a great extent, is to have the security stable oil supply

1. Increase domestic petroleum resources exploration and development dynamics, to ensure that the basic oil supply

2. Active investment overseas petroleum exploration and development business, safeguard overseas oil imports

(3) to establish and perfect the petroleum reserve system, avoid the risk of oil supply

(4) to carry out international petroleum futures trading, avoid international oil price risk

5. To save energy, the development of new energy, and reduce dependence on oil

6. Strengthen petroleum price system reform, to set up to adapt to the international oil price fluctuations of the market mechanism

求翻译下文，不求专业，但求通顺，GOOGLE ,有道，亦可！！！急！！！

翻译：作为一种稀缺的不可再生资源，石油在现代工业经济中是一个重要的产品因素，特别是在中国，因为中国现在正处于城市化和工业化发展的中后期。到2008年年底，中国的石油需求已经超过日本，成为世界第二大石油需求国。因此，石油价格的波动将对中国今后的经济发展产生重大影响。许多学者发现，油价上涨将带来国内生产总值增长放缓，通胀上升，失业率上升等对经济增长起负面影响的经济后果[1，2]。西方发达国家的经验表明，历史上的几个主要的石油危机直接伴随着世界经济萧条；二战后，十有八九的美国的经济萧条都发生在油价急剧上涨之后[3，4]。然而，近几年这种负关系似乎发生了变化。从1999年第一季度至2008年第二季度，石油价格持续飙升。1999年6月，实际价格为17美元/桶而到2008年6月则高达104美元/桶，增幅高达6.12倍。相反，中国的宏观经济形势尚未受高油价打击，它甚至保持着良好的经济增长速度。这就是说，在1999年之后石油价格的上涨和快速的经济增长密切相关，这就违背了传统观点的“石油价格上涨将显著抑制经济增长”。这种特殊的动态的不断变化的关系已引起一些学者的关注，它的成因已成为紧迫的能源研究领域。

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